This was the first thing that jumped out when the Giants looked at their revamped, 60-game schedule:
Their first series would be at Dodger Stadium. Their third road series would be right back at Dodger Stadium. Seven of their first 17 games would be at the home of the team widely regarded as the strongest in baseball, the team that reigns as the seven-time National League West champion, the team that has kicked sand while finishing 121.5 games ahead of the Giants over that seven-year span, the team that turned its archrivals into a grass stain in Bruce Bochy’s farewell weekend last September.
Advertisem*nt
In the resplendent Sunday sunshine at Dodger Stadium, the plucky Giants were eight outs away from posting a winning record in those seven games.
They held a 2-0 lead in the seventh inning despite collecting just one hit. And their right-hander on the hill, Kevin Gausman, was brushing the strike zone with the darkest shade of dominant.
Gausman had allowed only two hits while dominating with a fastball/split combination that could’ve been beat-sampled off “The Very Best of Jason Schmidt.” Gausman had just thrown his 80th pitch. It was a fastball at 99.3 mph. Cody Bellinger fought it off for a one-out single.
That was the moment when Giants manager Gabe Kapler started up the dugout steps. That was the moment he took out his aircraft carrier of a pitcher and signaled to his bucket brigade of a bullpen.
That was the moment the game changed.
Submarine right-hander Tyler Rogers gave up a two-strike single to Justin Turner and then a two-out home run to A.J. Pollock, Shaun Anderson surrendered a three-run shot to Mookie Betts in the eighth and the Giants skinned their knees on what looked to be a clear, pleasant and tree-lined path toward a potentially season-altering series victory.
The Giants could have taken two of three from the Dodgers. They could have won four of these seven games at Dodger Stadium, where they won’t return for a regular-season game until May 27, 2021. They could have beaten Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler on consecutive days, which happens about as often as Hale-Bopp streaks across the sky.
Instead, the Giants turned their first quality start of the season into yet one more source of consternation.
Kapler’s explanation: “It was a hot day, seventh time up and down, third time through the toughest part of the order. He had done a tremendous job. He carried his stuff into that inning. He carried his location into that inning. And it just felt like the right time to keep him healthy and strong and safe all the way through the season based on (the fact he was) going into the seventh for the first time.”
Advertisem*nt
The Giants made a conscious effort to ramp up their starting pitchers. You knew that. But this was Gausman’s third outing and fourth start. He had thrown 83 pitches in his previous outing at Coors Field.
It’s all too common for pitchers to injure themselves when they’re tired, and managers and pitching coaches are generally astute when it comes to perceiving small signs of fatigue. This is what they’re paid to do. It often makes them the target for fan derision when those final outs don’t snap into place.
But … 99.3 mph? From a pitcher who hadn’t issued a walk all afternoon?
Was there any observational data that went into this decision? And if so, what the heck was it?
Kapler’s explanation: “Absolutely, I think maintaining your stuff deep into your outing is a really good indication that you are strong. The other thing we look at is command and location. I can certainly understand why that would be something people would be looking at. I acknowledge that he continued to have his stuff.
“At the same time, the goal is not to have him be at his best for one outing. It’s to be at his best for multiple outings. As long as we can have him fresh and strong, we want to do that as well. It’s striking a balance between now and the future. And my job is to make a decision on who the best option is to get the next one, two, three hitters out. In that moment, my observation was that Rogers was the best option for that.”
Let’s begin with this: Rogers pitched two innings the previous day, and while he is near to a knuckleballer in his ability to pitch multiple innings on minimal rest, the Dodgers had just seen him at length for the fifth time already this season. This was precisely one of the fears expressed by some in the scouting community about what would happen to deception-based relievers in this wacky season as teams played concentrated bursts of games against one opponent. Those pitchers might not be as deceptive upon repeat viewings. As a result, those pitchers might not be as effective.
Advertisem*nt
But, sure, a manager should be allowed to go with his gut. Kapler said he felt that Rogers was the best choice to face Turner and perhaps induce a double play. He’s the manager. That was his call. Thousands upon thousands of pitching changes have backfired. It happens to the best of them. Onto the next series. Right?
Except it’s the rest of Kapler’s explanation that fails to compute. It’s the part about “striking a balance between now and the future.” It’s the part in which Kapler talks about the importance of pacing a veteran starting pitcher through a season of just 60 games.
Gausman might make eight more starts as a Giant. Nine tops.
He’ll be a free agent this winter. He isn’t a club-controlled young pitcher like Logan Webb. He isn’t a foundational rotation piece for the next Giants team that aspires to win 90-plus games. And actually, if these results repeat and Gausman keeps dominating in losses, then he could be a Giant for a heck of a lot shorter time period than that. The trade deadline is Aug. 31.
Gausman might have three more starts before then. Four tops.
And it’s right about now that the full context should be hitting you.
A pitcher throwing in the upper 90s with an unrecognizable splitter? A pitcher who is able to maintain that stuff into the late innings? A pitcher who just neutralized the opponent that the rest of the National League will be scheming to beat in October?
Absolutely, the Giants should be invested in maintaining Gausman’s health. Maybe he’s not an aircraft carrier. He’s a shiny sports coupe and the showroom doors are going to open to customers in a matter of weeks.
It’s impossible for anyone in this industry to feel confident that this trade deadline will be a seller’s market. The expanded postseason will be a bigger crapshoot than ever. There’s no guarantee that the season will even survive, although Major League Baseball sure does seem determined to plow through these positive tests and postponements and a very congested upcoming schedule.
Advertisem*nt
But you’ve got to believe that a pitcher with Gausman’s stuff is going to be in demand. And it’ll be incumbent upon the Giants to listen to offers. It’ll be incumbent on them to keep him nicely buffed and maintained.
You’ve also got to believe that all of this is understood on some level, spoken or unspoken, within the clubhouse.
Gausman definitely scowled after he handed over the baseball, but he was placid and not at all pointed in his postgame teleconference with reporters. If he appeared upset about anything, it was about the balk that the third-base umpire called on him without the courtesy of a warning.
“I definitely felt I had more in the tank,” Gausman said. “My limit is not 80 pitches, you know. But Kap’s job is to make those decisions. That’s his job description. I’m not the one going to get guys loose in the bullpen.
“It’s trying to win a series and it’s a hot day so maybe those are factors in his decision.”
Kapler’s explanation: “We always want our pitchers to be disappointed when they come out of the game because we always want them to view themselves as the best possible option to get the next three outs. I’d imagine Kevin really wanted to stay in that game and I’m really glad that he did. He didn’t give me any trouble on the mound. He’s a professional. That’s not really in his DNA.”
There’s one more factor: Gausman is likely to get an extra day of rest before his next start. For Bochy, that would be a reason to push his starter for another batter or another inning or a chance to finish off a signature moment. And in those moments, nobody wondered about the franchise’s larger motives. It was about winning the game. It was about creating a memory.
Sure, Bochy understood the importance of preserving his pitchers one day so he could be better equipped to win the next. At times like on Sunday, though, when the Giants had a chance to win a statement series behind a statement pitcher, when they had a chance to kick a little sand back at an archrival that has bullied them for too long, is there any doubt that Bochy would have doubled down on a dominant starting pitcher?
Advertisem*nt
Kapler is not Bochy, nor should anyone expect him to be. Direct comparisons to Bochy were going to be unfair no matter whom the Giants hired to replace him.
For one afternoon, though, Gabe Kapler chose a leaky bullpen over a pitcher on cruise control, his expressed rationale didn’t make a whole lot of sense and the results were predictable. The Giants lost a series they could have won. They created the wrong kind of memory.
The kind you hope to forget.
(Photo: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Andrew Baggarly is a senior writer for The Athletic and covers the San Francisco Giants. He has covered Major League Baseball for more than two decades, including the Giants since 2004 for the Oakland Tribune, San Jose Mercury News and Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. He is the author of two books that document the most successful era in franchise history: “A Band of Misfits: Tales of the 2010 San Francisco Giants” and “Giant Splash: Bondsian Blasts, World Series Parades and Other Thrilling Moments By the Bay.” Follow Andrew on Twitter @extrabaggs
